america will reduce its dependence on foreign oil!

we don't have a choice! when the oil is gone, so will our dependence!

last night on pbs there was an interesting aha moment. you know the little spots they run for corporations who helped sponsor the program you just watched? this one was from exxon/mobile. or as most people think, the richest incarnation of satan yet.

the whole thing was one employee saying the most exciting project of his whole career is his current one. developing new lithium ion battery technology. to most people, this would seem to be nothing more than a pr stunt. you know, like big tobacco ad's for their quit smoking website, or any oil company showing their commitment to wind or solar. this one struck me different.

having just read some finance articles online about exxon/mobile's investments. the article mentioned how even with people crying for blood in the wake of record high gas prices and record high oil company profits, they aren't putting capital into increased oil production or refining capacities. they're not funding exploration to find new oil deposits. they're investing in a broad and diverse stock portfolio. why? so they can continue to fleece the public? no. they diversify for the same reason they are researching battery technology.

there is no more oil to be found. at least nothing worth the cost of finding and extracting. they are investing in their future. they are finding a way to exist when the oil runs dry! impossible, you say? if you haven't heard of "peak oil," you will. google it. it is scary, and it will so drastically change our society, and our lives, that our grandkids will marvel at our stories of gasoline engines the way we marveled at how grandpa rode a horse to school!

in a nutshell, "peak oil" means that global production of oil (extraction and delivery to market) has peaked, or will peak within 10 years. that means, the number of barrels produced each day will never be higher, and will likely begin to decline. the big catch is, global demand is increasing more and more each year. as china fights to follow the development of korea and japan, an entirely new demand for oil will raise that global demand even faster!

don't believe it? think it's bunk? remember the mid 70's when there was a gas shortage to the extent that there were long lines at the pumps, and many places were forced to ration it? most any site you find by googling "peak oil" will have a graph showing that that is when u.s. oil production peaked. the national demand continued to grow, even while production fell. so why do we still drive gas powered cars with mileage not much better than the 70's? we began to import more oil than we produced. the gap has steadily widened ever since.


gas prices jump almost daily. the only defense is "supply and demand." why doesn't opec increase production? just because they like the prices high? come on! they know the higher the price, the more people will scream for alternatives. the more people will resent and try to free themselves from oil dependency. a billion $140 barrels is $140 billion. 1.5 billion $100 barrels is $150 billion. if they can make as much by increasing production as they can by increasing price, why opt for the high price that puts them in risk of losing their customers?

they can't increase production. or at the very least, the can't sustain it. the higher their production, the faster they run dry and lose all the wealth and power they have accumulated!

how big a deal is it? how high can gas prices really go? gas prices could easily top $10/gallon by 2020. it's a big deal, because gas prices are only the most obvious indicator of the problem. is the economy really hurting that bad because the national average is now over $4/gal? no. it's that, combined with inflation like no one has seen in decades. everything costs more. everything. higher fuel costs mean higher transportation costs. as people shift from oil to natural gas or electricity, those costs go up, so our utilities go up, while production costs on most everything we buy goes up.

unfortunately, that's only one side of it. apart from energy, we are only now starting to hear about how much oil we use without realizing it. plastic. plastic is made from petroleum. think about how much plastic you see around you. that includes a lot of the synthetic fibers in our clothing. (polyester) don't just think of the plastic products, think of all the plastic packaging. think about styrofoam. think of all the "disposable" plastic items. remember that empty water bottle, or plastic fork, or grocery bag it just oil that we throw in the garbage!


and of course the news lately if full of riots and panic as food prices begin to rise dramatically. apart from the oil used to power the tractors and equipment, most of the fertilizers and pesticides are made from petroleum! who knew? i know i was surprised by that one. food, is also one area, where part of the oil "cure" is actually killing us! e85 ethanol. it takes almost as much energy to produce as we get out of it. (think petroleum fertilizer, and machinery). plus, it's not only corn we can't eat, but it's farmland that used to grow wheat! (think sky-high wheat prices).

the real problem is, we started late. we let rich, powerful oil companies and automakers dig us into a hole, when we should have been finding alternative solutions 30 years ago! hybrids are a bandaid. electric vehicles need electricity that has to come from somewhere. hydrogen can't be purchased at the local 7-11. all of the most promising solutions, are suffering from lack of infrastructure. vital infrastructure that will take decades to put in place. decades that will cost us dearly!